Ten Years Is Shorter Than You Think

Shiny Thing$ #239: Ten Years is Shorter Than You Think…

^{· · · · · · · ·}

We're coming up on year nine of Rally.

That's a very insane thing to write.

Nine years ago, most of the collectibles people talk about every day now were still considered niche. Fractional ownership wasn't a thing (and most people didn’t understand why anyone would even consider these types of objects “assets” to begin with). Most auction houses barely knew what to do with trading cards. Dinosaurs weren't demolishing auction records every few months. And the idea that collectibles would become an institutional product was not even a conversation. 

A lot has changed.

And while the changes haven't all been perfect, it's remarkable what a decade can do. Theres a few points that are worth looking at with 2016 in mind…

The first, is pretty obvious: Prices

The numbers today would have sounded ridiculous ten years ago.

A PSA 10 1st Edition Charizard that traded for a few thousand dollars is now on the doorstep of $700K. Entire categories that were considered niche hobbies have become global markets. What's more interesting isn't that prices went up (which tends to happen, albeit slower than it has) - it's that patience was rewarded.

Over the last decade we've watched athletes like Shohei Ohtani and Victor Wembanyama enter their respective leagues and almost immediately see collectibles trade at levels normally reserved for legends. Over the past 14 months, both of this names entered the top 15 for most expensive cards ever sold. The market now prices future greatness faster than ever before.

Sometimes it's right, sometimes it's wrong, but there is no question rare hobby assets are now priced with a future premium the same way stock in companies like Tesla and Nvidia. 

The broader lesson has remained consistent: the people who were willing to hold quality assets through multiple cycles have generally done very well.

Second, Access to Information

Ten years ago, finding information was just really hard.

You kinda had to know people it you were getting bad info. You had to attend shows, and dig through auction catalogs and be really active in the community you were buying in. Sometimes you simply didn't know what something was worth because no one did and liquidity was too light to price the future.

Today, almost everything is available instantly. Pricing data, auction results, population reports, historical sales, card show recaps, and REAL market analysis. Every piece of information is sitting a few clicks away.

The “new problem” with information is speed.

It all moves so quickly now that participating actively can feel like a full-time job. Entire markets react in hours instead of months, and on top of that, AI is making research easier - but it's also increasing the pace at which everyone else can research too.

Crypto accelerated this trend more than anything. For a while it trained people to expect instant outcomes. I’m embraced to say this as I chased it just like everyone else, but it made patience feel “outdated.”

Ironically, some of the best lessons from the last few years have been a return to patience. Better tools, better transparency, and better liquidity ultimately improved collectibles and will continue to improve the space. But not before reminding us that speed and wisdom aren't always the same thing.

And lastly (and maybe most importantly), Perspective

One thing that hasn't changed over the last decade is why most people first got involved in the first place. Despite all the new money and financial infrastructure, collectibles are still fundamentally tied to personal interests. People buy the athletes they grew up watching and the moments they remember (or will remember in the future), and the stories they want to own a piece of.

In some ways, that's become even more important. The amount of information competing for our attention today is dramatically higher than it was ten years ago because everything is “market” and those markets operate 24/7 now. 

On a macro level, every “standard” asset class feels increasingly connected to the same macroeconomic headlines. Collectibles remain one of the few categories where value is still heavily influenced by culture, history, scarcity, and individual preference. They move over time rather than always reacting instantly to every headline.

That's not to say they're immune from speculation or volatility (anyone who has participated in these markets long enough knows otherwise), but unlike many of those standard financial assets, the underlying reason people own them hasn’t changed all that much.

The fact that a great collectible can appreciate in value is certainly attractive… BUT, the fact that people would still want to own it even if it didn't is what makes the category unique.

Ten years later, that distinction remains as important as ever, and above all, its the core reason why the category has continued to grow even as new trends, technologies, and asset classes have come and gone.

Until next week…